OpEd
John Bailey
Why the Veto of California Senate Bill 1047 ...

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent veto of California’s Senate Bill (SB) 1047, known as the Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act, reignited the debate about how best to regulate the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence. Newsom’s veto illustrates a cautious approach to regulating a new technology and could pave the way for more pragmatic AI safety policies.

Why the Veto of California Senate Bill 1047 Could Lead to Safer AI Policies
John Bailey
The Deception Dilemma: When AI Misleads

An emerging body of research suggests that large language models (LLMs) can “deceive” humans by offering fabricated explanations for their behavior or concealing the truth of their actions from human users. The implications are worrisome, particularly because researchers do not fully understand why or when LLMs engage in this behavior.  

The Deception Dilemma: When AI Misleads
OpEd
John Bailey
Preserving Trust and Freedom in the Age of AI

I was excited to contribute to a group of over 20 prominent AI researchers, legal experts, and tech industry leaders from institutions including OpenAI, the Partnership on AI, Microsoft, the University of Oxford, a16z crypto, and MIT on a paper proposing "personhood credentials" (PHCs) as a potential solution to the growing challenge of AI-powered online deception. PHCs would provide a privacy-preserving way for individuals to verify their humanity online without disclosing personal information. While implementation details remain to be determined, the core concept warrants serious consideration from policymakers and tech leaders as AI capabilities rapidly advance, threatening to erode the trust and accountability essential for societies to function.

Preserving Trust and Freedom in the Age of AI
OpEd
John Bailey
Open AI Models: A Step Toward Innovation or a ...

The increasing capabilities of AI have sparked an important debate: Should the "weights" that define a model's intelligence be openly accessible or tightly controlled? This article dives deep into the arguments on both sides. Proponents say open-weight models accelerate innovation, enable greater scrutiny for safety, and democratize AI capabilities. Critics warn of risks like misuse for disinformation or military purposes by adversaries. The piece examines recent developments like frontier open-weight models from Meta and Mistral, Mark Zuckerberg's case for openness, concerns about China's AI ambitions, and the US government's cautious approach.

Open AI Models: A Step Toward Innovation or a Threat to Security?
OpEd
John Bailey
Charting a Bipartisan Course: The Senate’s ...

The recent AI policy roadmap from the bipartisan AI working group in Congress strikes a thoughtful balance between promoting AI innovation and addressing potential risks. It lays out a nuanced approach including increased AI safety efforts, crucial investments in domestic STEM talent, protections for children in the age of AI, and "grand challenge" programs to spur breakthroughs - all while avoiding hasty overregulation that could stifle progress

Charting a Bipartisan Course: The Senate’s Roadmap for AI Policy

Prediction Markets

Federal Regulators Should Approve Election Prediction Markets

Federal Regulators Should Approve Election Prediction Markets

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) continues to wrestle with how to best regulate prediction markets. The commission is expected to make a decision as soon as this week on whether the startup Kalshi can offer a market on the outcome of the upcoming midterms. Election prediction markets have proven to be a powerful tool for forecasting elections and are typically more accurate, timely, and complete than conventional methods. Kalshi’s proposal does not pose a risk to the integrity of the US election system. Approving Kalshi’s submission would be a step in the right direction for the commission and promotes the public interest